A somewhatunnerving studyhas suggested there is a small – but important – fortune that an temblor and leave tsunami could scourge Hawaii in the next 50 days .
Published in theJournal of Geophysical Research , the study from the University of Hawaii at Mānoa ( UHM ) allege there is approximately a 9 percent chance of a order of magnitude 9 or greater earthquake hit the Aleutian Islands ( which run west from Alaska ) in the next half a hundred , bring about a mega - tsunami that could engulf Hawaii .
Aprevious reportsuggested that a large tsunami would put more than 200,000 resident of Hawaii at risk of exposure , and cause $ 40 billion worth of damage . If the scenario discover above did wager out , people on the Hawaiian islands would have about 4 hours to get to safe higher land before the tsunami struck .
This latest study is not based on any late activity in the Aleutian Islands , though . It is alternatively a numerical model based on the global rate of large earthquakes , combine with previous activity reported in the Aleutian Islands ’ subduction zona , where one of Earth ’s architectonic plates passes under another , recognise as a fault .
The model also incorporated previous tsunami triggered by quake , such as the one that bump off Japan in 2011 .
“ These are rare events , ” lead generator Rhett Butler toldHawaii News Now . “ They do n’t materialize all the time but there is a hazard for them and our effort here is to try out to define what that chance might be . ”
In 2014 , Butler and his team get hold a pile ofmarine debrisin a giant sinkhole that they remember is grounds of a huge tsunami 9 meters ( 30 feet ) high hitting Hawaii half a millennium ago . They believe this was trigger off by a magnitude 9 earthquake from the Aleutian Islands . Now , they think there is a risk of another one .
The squad stress that they are n’t seek to make alarm , but rather they are hope to alarm people who might be affected . However , as the study is just a mathematical role model at the moment , this theory will no doubt require verification from other scientist before any fast ending can be draw .
Image in text : Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands . blood-red and sensationalistic arcs were consider in the chance estimate . Stars and dates show earthquakes greater than magnitude 8 pre-20th century . Butler et al
